Odds & Value Calculator
Compare the market price with your own estimated probability.
This calculator evaluates your inputs. It does not predict the match or guarantee profit.
ODDSPIRA v1.5
Football probabilities without the guesswork.
Calculate singles, accumulators and systems, model matches, track results and protect the bankroll.
Value results
Use the numbers as a filter before making a decision.
Implied probability—
Your fair odds—
Probability edge—
Expected value—
Expected profit—
Conservative ½ Kelly—
Enter valid values and calculate.
Poisson Match Calculator
Enter expected goals for the home and away teams.
Optional bookmaker odds
Poisson assumes independent scoring and constant scoring rates. Treat the output as a model estimate, not certainty.
Match probabilities
Model probabilities, fair odds and optional value comparison.
Home win—Fair odds —
Draw—Fair odds —
Away win—Fair odds —
Over 2.5—Fair odds —
Under 2.5—Fair odds —
BTTS Yes—Fair odds —
Goals markets
Market
Probability
Fair odds
Status
Over 1.5
—
—
Model
Over 2.5
—
—
—
Over 3.5
—
—
Model
Under 2.5
—
—
Model
BTTS Yes
—
—
—
1X2 value check
Selection
Model
Fair odds
Value
Home win
—
—
No odds
Draw
—
—
No odds
Away win
—
—
No odds
Most likely correct scores
Add a bet
Your entries are stored locally in this browser.
Editing an existing bet
Bankroll setting
Offline mode: data stays on this device. CSV is useful for Excel; Full backup preserves everything and can be restored later.
Betting performance
Track profit, ROI, strike rate and bankroll movement.
Total bets00 pending
Settled stake0.00Won + lost bets
Profit0.00Net result
ROI0.00%Profit / stake
Strike rate0.00%Wins / decisions
Current bankroll1000.00Peak drawdown 0.00
Bankroll curve
| Date | Match | Selection | Strategy | Odds | Stake | Result | Profit |
|---|
No bets saved yet.
Performance breakdown
Only won and lost bets are used for ROI and win rate.
By competition
By selection / market
By strategy
Bankroll & Staking Calculator
Choose a method and calculate a disciplined stake.
Losing streak simulation
No staking system removes variance. The goal is to survive losing runs and avoid oversized bets.
Staking results
Stake size, risk level and bankroll after a losing streak.
Recommended stake——
Bankroll after streak——
Bankroll drawdown—After selected losses
Losses to halve bankroll—Approximation
Recovery needed—Gain needed to recover
Risk rating——
Conservative
—
Aggressive
Initial bankroll—
Total lost—
Average stake—
Final stake—
Stress test
| Losing streak | Remaining bankroll | Drawdown | Recovery required |
|---|
Calculate a staking plan to see the risk assessment.
Accumulator & System Calculator
Build a slip and compare the bookmaker price with your estimated probabilities.
Selection
Odds
Your %
Multiplying probabilities assumes the selections are independent. Related markets from the same match may be correlated and can make the result misleading.
Accumulator results
Combined price, probability and expected value.
Combined odds—Bookmaker price
Bookmaker implied probability—Before margin adjustment
Your combined probability—Assuming independence
Fair odds—From your probabilities
Expected value—Per total stake
Expected profit—Based on entered stake
Potential return—If all legs win
½ Kelly stake—Conservative Kelly
Selections—Number of legs
Enter selections and calculate.
Selection analysis
Selection
Fair odds
EV
Verdict
Add your own probability estimate for every selection. Without it, the calculator cannot evaluate value.
No-Vig & Bookmaker Margin
Remove the bookmaker margin and estimate fair probabilities.
Outcome
Decimal odds
Standard normalization assumes each outcome carries a proportional share of the bookmaker margin.
Fair market results
Bookmaker margin, normalized probabilities and no-vig odds.
Total implied probability—All outcomes combined
Bookmaker margin—Overround above 100%
Market quality——
| Outcome | Book odds | Implied % | No-vig % | Fair odds | Margin share |
|---|
Add the complete set of mutually exclusive market outcomes.
Dutching Calculator
Split a total stake across outcomes to balance the result.
Outcome
Decimal odds
Dutching reduces variance across selected outcomes, but it does not create value by itself.
Dutching results
Stake allocation, return and profit for each selected outcome.
Total stake—Amount distributed
Target return——
Expected locked profit——
| Outcome | Odds | Stake | Return | Profit | Stake share |
|---|
Enter at least two valid outcomes.
Fair odds first
Remove bookmaker margin before judging whether a price is genuinely attractive.
Compare, do not chase
A higher bookmaker price than fair odds may indicate value, but only if the model inputs are sound.
Protect the bankroll
Use the Bankroll tool to stress-test stake size before risking real money.